Stock Market Banking on Partial Deal. The Corn & Ethanol Report 10/11/19

We kickoff the day with FED Kashkari Speech at 7:00 A.M., Export Prices at 7:30 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Rig-Count at High Noon, FED Rosengren Speech at 12:15 P.M. and FED Kaplan Speech at 2:00 P.M. Another day and another headline and/or tweet. The market is having high hopes we can salvage the damage of the U.S.-China talks before all else is lost. More tariffs, or do we move to secure the sticking point of our Intellectual Property Beijing? We are waiting… And if forced we can wait longer. Can You? Other headlines, an Iranian Oil Tanker was struck by two rockets off the port of Jeddah. And Iran blames Washington. Really? Iran has been scraping for a fight trying to draw Americans in, and failed! Our Goodwill is stronger than you think. After being the bully on the block they must realize, what you reap is what you sow. No handkerchiefs or crying towels here.

On the Corn front, not one person I have spoken to believes the USDA numbers on Corn yesterday. We did have a little bounce after the market was crushed on those numbers. Should the USDA revise their yield numbers? In the overnight electronic session, the December Corn is currently trading at 385 ½ which is 5 ¼ cents higher. The trading range has been 386 to 380 ½ so far. After this first blast of winter weather you must ask, what crop if any will be good enough for human consumption let alone feed.

On the Ethanol front, the Trump administration is attempting to find a happy medium between farmers and oil refineries, balancing a tightrope. In the overnight electronic session, the November Ethanol is currently trading at 1.482 which is .011 higher. The trading range has been 1.484 to 1.482. The market is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.474 and 1 offer @ 1.487 with 2 contracts traded and Open Interest at 421 contracts.

On the Crude Oil front, all eyes are on the U.S.-China talks again. And investors are starting to think about the long-term effects of the geo-political strife in the Middle-East and of course the repercussions of supply and demand, and there is heavy demand and tight supplies. Investors will be looking at rig-counts at 12:00 P.M. today to get a further handle of tightness in supplies. In the overnight electronic session the November Crude Oil is currently trading at 5382 which is 27 points higher. The trading range has been 5487 to 5367.

On the Natural Gas front, yesterday’s Gas Storage number came in line with the street’s expectations. There is still supply that is plentiful and granted we are in shoulder season, the market does not seem to be pricing in the first wrath of Old Man Winter which is at our doorstep and already buried the Plains. In the overnight electronic session the November Natural Gas is currently trading at 2.223 which is a ½ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 2.228 to 2.198.

Have a Great Trading Day!
Dan Flynn