AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Showing Turnaround Tuesday Bounce

Corn futures are trading 1 to 3 1/4 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday. The drop in crop condition ratings last week suggested to some potential yield loss. We see the change as statistically insignificant. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 35% of the crop silking as of Sunday vs. the 66% average, with 5% in the dough stage (10% average). Corn conditions slipped 1% to 57% gd/ex and 2 points on the Brugler500 index to 351. This was due to heat stress in a number of states during the reporting period, as IN and SD were 5 points lower, with MN and OH down 6. Ratings improved in IA (+4), NE and MO (+3), and IL (+1),

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.23 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.30, up 3 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.38 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.42 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Slightly Lower on Tuesday

Soybean futures are showing fractional to 3 cent losses in most front months at midday. August soybean meal are down $1.70ton, with soy oil 27 points higher. The 5-day QPF shows dry weather for most of the Midwest over the next several days. The 6-10 day outlook indicates above normal chances for precip in most of the Corn Belt, up into the Dakotas. Monday afternoon’s NASS report indicated that 40% of the US soybean crop was blooming as of 7/21 (66% avg), with 7% setting pods (28% avg). Not a single one of the 18 reported states were above normal progress for either stage. As expected, conditions were unch at 54% gd/ex and 347 on the Brugler 500index. By state, the most notable jump was for IL (+10), with IA (+1) and NE (+4) both higher as well. Ratings in IN (-4), ND and OH (-7), and SD (-6) were all lower.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.86 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.92 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.05, down 3/4 cent,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.17 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $306.70, down $1.70,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.00, up $0.27

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Mostly Higher at Midday

Wheat futures are up 1/4 to 3 cents in the front months on Tuesday. NASS rated the spring wheat crop at 76% good/ex condition, unch from the previous week with the Brugler500 up 3 points on a swing from good TO excellent. ID (+11) and ND (+3) were the only states to show improvement. The winter wheat harvest progressed 12% from the previous week to 69% complete but still lags the 79% average pace. Taiwan purchased 90,650 MT of US wheat in their tender. Japan is tendering for 114,242 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender, all US origin. Results are expected Thursday. Egypt purchased 300,000 MT in their recent GASC tender, with the origins split between Ukraine (120,000 MT), Romania (120,000 MT) and Russia (60,000 MT).

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.88, up 3/4 cent,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.31 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.21 1/2, up 1/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live Cattle Higher, Feeders Lower

Live cattle futures are up 10 to 65 cents in most contracts at midday. Feeder cattle futures are steady to 25 cents lower. The monthly NASS Cold Storage report indicated another drop in frozen beef stocks to 394.525 million lbs on June 30. That was down 2.62% from May and 12.05% below a year ago to reach a 5-year low. That is the first time beef stocks have been under 400 million lbs since Oct 2014. The CME feeder cattle index was down 49 cents @ $138.16 on July 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up 37 cents per cwt at $213.69, with Select boxes 44 cents higher @ $190.03. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 114,000 head, which is 3,000 head below last week and 4,000 above the same Monday last year.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $109.050, up $0.600,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $109.800, up $0.650,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $114.175, up $0.375,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $141.950, down $0.225

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.175, down $0.250

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.400, down $0.250

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Nearing Limit Gains at Midday

Lean Hog futures are showing modest gains in the back months, with front months up $2.40 to a few ticks off limit higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 87 cents from the previous day on July 19 @ $73.27. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was back down $1.72 on Tuesday morning at $78.89. The often-volatile belly was down $10.50. The national average base hog value was up 94 cents on Tuesday at $77.03. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 473,000 head on Monday. That was up 63,000 head from the previous week and 49,000 head below the same week last year. Frozen pork stocks at the end of June were tallied at 622.367 million lbs. That was up 10.77% from last year but a drop of 1.05% from May. Belly stocks were up 5.98% from a year ago at 56.563 million lbs, but down 11.95% from May. Chinese pork imports during June were up 62.8% from the same month last year.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $86.150, up $2.925,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $81.600, up $2.400

DEC 19 Hogs are at $79.500, up $2.475

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Lower on Improved Condition Ratings

Cotton futures are down 13 to 27 points in most contracts on Tuesday. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed the 2019 US cotton crop at 78% squared (80% avg), as 33% was setting bolls (37% avg). Cotton conditions improved another 4% to 60% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 shifting 11 points higher to 358. TS Barry helped more acres than it hurt, as LA (+3) and TX (+15) both improved. AZ was down 21 points, with MS 4 points lower. The Cotlook A index for July 22 was up 125 points from the previous day at 74.20 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.52, down 27 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.13, down 23 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 64.02, down 13 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 64.87, down 18 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com